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Hector Calvo PardoLecturerUniversity of Southampton Economics Division, School of Social Sciences Building 58 Room 3083 Highfield Campus, Southampton SO17 1BJ United Kingdom Tel. +44 23 8059 5051 Fax. +44 23 8059 3858 Email: calvo@soton.ac.uk  |
CV |
PublicationsMy main research interests are in international trade, macroeconomics and finance.On international trade, I argue that the 'fear of globalisation' can be understood as producers' rational reaction to an increase in strategic uncertainty induced by a free-trade policy in a truly decentralised setting (i.e. absent a Walrasian Auctioneer): Are the Anti-globalists Right? Gains-from-Trade without a Walrasian Auctioneer, Economic Theory 38(3), 561-592, January 2009. Since
international trade generally involves many goods, and as a preliminary step, we studied the
coordination of expectations in a general equilibrium setting:
Eductive Stability in Sequential Exchange Economies: An Introduction, (joint with R. Guesnerie), ch.6 in Assessing Rational Expectations: Eductive Stability in Economics, by R.Guesnerie Ed., MIT Press 2005, and DELTA DP 2004-25. If strategic uncertainty could explain why countries were so reluctant to remove trade barriers, thereby justifying the existence of multilateral trade institutions, at the micro level, exporting firms appeared to be extraordinarily dynamic and in unusual ways. We pursued that research line in "Sequential Exporting" (see below). As well, an empirical assessment of the consequences of adopting a free trade agreement in Asia was conducted: The ASEAN Free-Trade Agreement: Impact on Trade Flows and External Trade Barriers, (joint with C. Freund and E. Ornelas), forthcoming in R. Barro & J. Lee (eds.), Costs and Benefits of Regional Economic Integration, Oxford U. Press. Macroeconomics and finance: As a consequence of increases in trade liberalisation, firms exposed to increased competition will introduce incentive remuneration schemes and dismiss the least productive workers to boost productivity and remain active, increasing labour income uncertainty in the short run. Taking advantage of advances in the literature on portfolio choice in the presence of background risk, we inspected empirically whether an increase in earnings uncertainty results in average crowding out from the stock market. Using a cross-sectional household level data set from France (INSEE 'Patrimoine 98' survey) we found that it was not the case (see (*) in Research). Against common wisdom, we extended the results of portfolio choice to the presence of a correlated background risk (Old version, below), conducted a new survey to obtain a self-assessed proxy for the correlation ('DELTA-TNS 2002' survey) and empirically reassessed it with success: (joint with Luc Arrondel and Xisco Oliver). May 2008. (forthcoming Economica) On precautionary savings: Les Francais sont-ils prudents? Patrimoine et risque sur le les revenus des menages. (joint with Luc Arrondel). Current PDF version: January 2009. (forthcoming Economie et Statistique) ResearchOn (Household) finance:Temperance in French Household Portfolios? (*) (joint with Luc Arrondel). September 2007. (Revise and resubmit Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance) Current research on finance refines the theoretical results on correlated background risks, incorporates portfolio choice in Carroll's precautionary savings model, and exploits a new representative data set with self-assessed subjective probability distributions for stock market returns (see my Vita). The latter won an ESRC First Grant (RES-061-25-0327) for 2008-2010. On International Trade: Sequential Exporting (joint with F. Albornoz, G. Corcos and E. Ornelas) Technical Addendum 1 Technical Addendum 2 Trade in Goods and Factors: Substitutes or Complements? 1) From Immigration to Outsourcing. 2) The impact of Migration on Institutions. The latter won a NORFACE Research Grant (PI: Dr. J. Wahba) for 2009-2011. |
