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Publications
My
main research
interests are in international trade, macroeconomics
and finance. On international trade, I argue that the 'fear of
globalisation' can be understood as producers' rational reaction to an
increase in strategic uncertainty induced by a free-trade policy in a
truly decentralised setting (i.e. absent a Walrasian Auctioneer):
Are the
Anti-globalists Right?
Gains-from-Trade without a Walrasian Auctioneer, Economic Theory 38(3), 561-592, January 2009.
Since
international trade generally involves many goods, we studied the
coordination of heterogeneous expectations from an eductive viewpoint
in a general equilibrium setting taking
advantage of previous contributions to the literature:
Eductive Stability
in Sequential
Exchange Economies: An Introduction, (joint with R.
Guesnerie),
ch.6 in Assessing Rational Expectations:
Eductive
Stability in Economics, by R.Guesnerie Ed., MIT
Press 2005,
and DELTA
DP
2004-25.
As a
consequence of increases
in trade liberalisation, firms exposed to increased competition will
introduce incentive remuneration schemes and dismiss the least
productive workers to boost productivity and remain active, increasing
labour income uncertainty in the short run. Taking advantage of
advances in the literature on portfolio choice in the presence of
background risk, we inspected empirically whether an increase in
earnings uncertainty results in average crowding out from the stock
market. Using a cross-sectional household level data set from France
(INSEE 'Patrimoine 98' survey) we found that it was not the case (see (*) in Research). Against
common wisdom,
we extended the results of portfolio choice to the presence of
a
correlated background risk (Old version, below), conducted a new survey
to obtain a self-assessed proxy for the correlation ('DELTA-TNS 2002'
survey) and empirically reassessed it with success:
Temperance in Stock Market Participation: Evidence from France.
(joint with Luc Arrondel and
Xisco
Oliver). May 2008.
(forthcoming Economica)
On precautionary savings:
Les Francais sont-ils prudents? Patrimoine et risque sur le les revenus des menages. (joint with Luc Arrondel). Current PDF version: January 2009. (forthcoming Economie et Statistique)
Research
On (Household) finance:
Temperance in
French Household Portfolios? (*)
(joint with Luc Arrondel). September 2007. (Revise and resubmit Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance)
Current
research on finance
refines the theoretical results on correlated background risks,
incorporates portfolio choice in Carroll's precautionary savings model,
and exploits a new representative data set with self-assessed
subjective probability distributions for stock market returns (see my
Vita).
The latter won an ESRC First Grant (RES-061-25-0327) for 2008-2010.
On International Trade:
Sequential Exporting
(joint with F. Albornoz, G. Corcos and E. Ornelas)
The ASEAN Free-Trade Agreement: Impact on Trade Flows and External Trade Barriers
(joint with C. Freund and E. Ornelas)
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